NCAA Tournament Day 4

The Sweet Sixteen looks quite marketable. West Virginia might not have enough to beat Kentucky. But because of West Virginia's unorthodox pressing style, and because West Virginia is great at rebounding as well as forcing turnovers, this will easily be the most intriguing game Kentucky plays before the Final Four. The Sweet Sixteen also features NBA center prospect Jakob Poeltl and Utah's veteran Top 10 defense against Duke's Jahlil Okafor and Duke's Top 10 offense. We have a likely shootout between Gonzaga and UCLA with west coast pride on the line. And Arizona vs Xavier features a coach vs his former assistant, where the former assistant has a strong enough front-line to make the game interesting. We have North Carolina vs Wisconsin, the full-court team against the precision half-court team. That matchup also means Wisconsin faces one of a handful of teams with enough athletic forwards to match up with Wisconsin's big three forwards. We have Notre Dame vs Wichita St. in a matchup of two great guard-led teams. We have Oklahoma's tight rotation and dominant execution against Tom Izzo's game-planning. We have Mark Gottfried the giant-killer against a Louisville team that has been to the Final Four before. The next round should be really fun. Let's take a quick look at all 16 teams left in the NCAA tournament and how they did in their first two NCAA tournament games. All stats are the two-game average. The stats on the left are the raw stats, the stats on the right are adjusted for opponent. I'm counting every NCAA game as a neutral site game. Team Raw Off Raw Def Adj Off Adj Def Duke 123.3 84.7 131.5 85.2 Kentucky 104.2 78.3 109.9 79.7 Arizona 127.2 99.6 129.6 95.8 Michigan St. 104.3 93.9 118.7 88.0 Xavier 125.4 103.8 128.4 96.0 Utah 112.3 96.9 119.1 89.3 Wichita St. 115.2 102.2 120.6 91.8 Gonzaga 126.5 105.2 133.1 101.4 Louisville 108.1 94.8 115.1 89.2 West Virginia 105.5 93.1 111.4 87.8 NC State 104.6 101.5 114.4 91.8 Wisconsin 127.8 110.8 129.0 104.2 UCLA 115.2 101.8 120.5 97.7 Oklahoma 113.0 100.9 118.0 97.6 North Carolina 112.0 104.5 119.1 99.9 Notre Dame 106.6 101.1 113.3 97.6 Duke, Kentucky, Arizona have obviously played dominant basketball in the tournament so far. Michigan St.'s win over Virginia might have been the single most impressive win so far. NC State also played terrific against a dominant Villanova team, but they struggled against LSU in the first round, so they aren't quite as high in the table. Looking at the individual stats, again all two-game averages: Best shooting (eFG%): Xavier 67% Lowest turnover rate: Michigan St. 12% Highest offensive rebounding rate: Arizona 50% Highest free throw rate: Utah 70% Most misses forced (lowest eFG%): Kentucky 33% Highest turnover rate forced: West Virginia 31% Lowest offensive rebounding rate allowed: Gonzaga 16% Least fouling (lowest free throw rate): Duke 13% #7 Michigan St. defeated #2 Virginia I expected Virginia to lose before the Final Four. As I showed last Tuesday, Virginia's offense was largely broken in the final stretch of the season. And I've always been concerned that Virginia's pace made them susceptible to losing to a team with worse margin-of-victory numbers. When you shorten the game, all it takes is a small cold spell to lose. But if anyone was going to pull the upset, it seems only appropriate that it was Tom Izzo and the Michigan St. Spartans. We've all seen the March numbers. Tom Izzo's teams consistently out-perform their seed in March. CBS threw out this stat on Sunday. Tom Izzo's teams are 20-4 playing on the weekend on one day's rest in the NCAA tournament. On the one hand, it is easy to write off tournament records as noise. A lot of teams lose because of one game or one half. It hardly seems like a fair litmus test of a coach to concentrate on the small sample of NCAA tournament games. If you have enough coaches and enough NCAA tournament games, it isn't a huge shock that there would be a few outliers in that sample. Tom Izzo is an extreme tournament outlier, but over the history of the NCAA tournament, you'd always expect a few coaches to fall in that category. But I look at all the other pieces of information, all the other things you see besides the final score, and I can't help but believe Tom Izzo's ownership of March is something real, not some statistical fluke. I was watching the North Carolina vs Arkansas game on Saturday night, and Roy Williams was brutally honest. "Coach, we saw you played zone and went small. How did you think those strategies worked?" Williams, "I honestly can't tell you until I watch the tape. I'm not sure if we executed better with the smaller lineup or not." Roy Williams is a great coach. He knows that by running an up-tempo system and recruiting elite athletes, his teams will always have a chance at a title. But Roy Williams doesn't see the things Tom Izzo sees on the basketball court. And so many tournament coaches, be they Williams, or Tony Bennett, or John Thompson III, all of whom I respect tremendously, are often victims of their own systems. As Kenny Smith said succinctly, once Virginia fell down by eight, they didn't have another approach. They didn't have another gear to change the game and change the momentum. Virginia could only be the grind-it-out team they had been all year. There are only a handful of coaches that I respect as truly flexible. Rick Pitino is in that category. And Tom Izzo might be the leader in that category. Whatever your team's weakness is, however your team chooses to play, his teams are prepared to execute in the game at hand. If the right strategy is to run and attack in transition, Michigan St. can run and attack in transition. If the right strategy is to play a half-court game and out-execute with the shot clock winding down, well let's just say Michigan St. wasn't afraid to play a slow-paced game after playing in the Big Ten. People talk about how they love the double round-robin in some leagues. I hate the double round-robin. I think the right preparation for the tournament is to play as many different teams with as many different styles as possible. The Big Ten provided that this year. And Michigan St. was, as it turns out, susceptible to one type of team. Maryland beat the Spartans twice in the regular season, because the Terrapins' guards abused Michigan St.'s guards. Teams with speedy guards who could get to the free throw line gave Michigan St. problems all year. And Michigan St. sent their opponent to the free throw line far too often in losses. But here's the thing about Michigan St. The Spartans don't settle for having a weakness. If something doesn't work, they keep working to fix it. In the third match-up in the Big Ten tournament, Michigan St. kept Maryland in front of them, didn't foul, and overcame the one team they struggled against all year. Again on Saturday, Tum Tum Nairn and Denzel Valentine were struggling against Virginia's penetration. Don't be fooled by the final score. Virginia has some very good offensive players that can put pressure on a defense. And Virginia did get to the line 24 times in the second half. It was the kind of game that Michigan St. would have lost in January. But Michigan St. didn't fold. A very emotional Tom Izzo talked about it in the post-game interview. This Spartan team executed the defensive game plan to near perfection. Yes, they fouled a little bit too much. But Michigan St. held Virginia to a 32% eFG%. Almost every Virginia shot was contested. I've said since the start of the year that Michigan St. has less recruiting talent than any Spartan team has had in a decade. But it hasn't mattered. As great as Tom Izzo is at maximizing the abilities of his players, I think no team has come closer to playing at its ceiling than this Spartans' squad. They aren't going to win a national title. They aren't better than Kentucky or Wisconsin or Arizona. But as they showed in the Big Ten tournament final against Wisconsin, Michigan St. can play almost at that level. Win or lose from here on out, when you see a team of players play to their absolute maximum potential, that is a thing of beauty. #1 Duke defeated #8 San Diego St. 100 seconds into the game, San Diego St.'s Skyler Spencer was leaning into Duke's Jahlil Okafor. Okafor shoved Spencer away and Spencer was called for a foul. If the officials were going to call the game that way, you sort of knew this was going to be Duke's night. Probably my favorite part of the game was Kenny Smith raving about Justise Winslow at halftime. Winslow might be my favorite player in all of college basketball this year. And I love when someone who hasn't watched much college basketball this year sees Winslow play for the first time. Almost unanimously, their jaw drops when they see him play. He can defense multiple positions; he can rebound; he has great hands to get steals; he blocks shots; he can shoot threes; he can attack in transition and find Duke's shooters. I'm not sure what his position would be in the NBA. But he could fit in almost any rotation because he is the ultimate versatile player. #3 Oklahoma defeated #11 Dayton I hate that the announcers are so quick to mention fatigue as an excuse. Yes, Dayton was playing the third game in five days, and the sixth game in ten days. Fatigue might have mattered. But Dayton has also benefited tremendously from home crowds in this NCAA tournament. And when we claim that Dayton had a late drought because of fatigue, we are ignoring the fact that Oklahoma's dominant defense finally came through late in the game. Oklahoma's defense has improved substantially from 91st last year to 6th this season. It is a shocking turnaround. Part of the answer is the team's continuity. Returning a lot of players does help with defense. But returning minutes can't explain that kind of turnaround. Part of the answer is the fact that transfer TaShawn Thomas became eligible and gave the team another solid post-player with solid shot-blocking ability. But Thomas' presence alone doesn't explain the improvement. For a team to improve on defense, like Oklahoma has this year, requires that all five starters buy in. Buddy Hield has a reputation for being only a shooter. But he is a better defender than people realize. And late in the game Dayton finally got a basket and energized the crowd. Hield turned the ball over. Had Hield fouled here and allowed a three point play, it might have flipped the whole script of the game. But Hield did not foul. He simply backed up, waited for the shot, and blocked it away defensively. That basically summarized the turnaround this season for Oklahoma. Because of their defense, this team is headed to the Sweet Sixteen. I have a little more to say on Dayton in the next blurb. #7 Wichita St. defeated #2 Kansas This game hinged on turnovers. For awhile, it seemed like Kansas' guards might out-play Wichita St.'s guards. There was a moment in the first half where Wichita St.'s Fred Van Vleet tried a cross-over and Devonte' Graham simply reached out and grabbed the ball. Even late in the game Graham had a dynamic steal that was one of Kansas' few momentum plays in the second stanza. The freshman had 5 steals in the game, and played one of the best games of his career. But Wichita St. got more steals than Kansas. And they got more steals that led to key run-outs. Time and time again, Wichita St. would jump up and steal an inbound pass, or the long Wichita St. arms would reach out and grab a cross-court pass and leak out in transition. And when Wichita St. wasn't attacking in transition, they were still breaking Kansas down off the dribble and driving to the basket for easy bank-shots. For Wichita St., playing against a state-rival team that doesn't think that a rivalry game is worth playing, the win is further validation of everything head coach Gregg Marshall has built. Three years ago, Wichita St. made the Final Four. Last year the team went undefeated in the regular season. This year, Wichita St. beat Kansas to go to the Sweet Sixteen. I hope Wichita St. fans can take this weekend in and savor the moment. Gregg Marshall is going to say all the right things about winning in the Elite Eight and somehow finding a way to beat Kentucky to get to the Final Four. But in sports, we are far too obsessed with the future and rarely appreciate the present. No sooner does Ohio St. win a national championship in football, but fans start asking if they can repeat. But in many ways, that is the gift that Gregg Marshall has given Wichita St. fans. By talking like he plans to build a mid-western version of Gonzaga, he has given his fans reason to think that this moment in the sun is not fleeting. Wichita St. has had a great three year run, but it might not be over. Dayton fans have no such luxury right now. Dayton made the Elite Eight last year and won two tournament games this year before losing to Oklahoma. Dayton, like Wichita St., should feel like it is on top of the world. But when I talk to Dayton alumni, there is a real fear that Archie Miller will jump to the best available job. Part of that is based on anger that Dayton has not received an invite to the new Big East. I hope Dayton fans can enjoy the moment either way. There are a lot of teams that would dream of winning five total games in back-to-back NCAA tournaments. Dayton is a storied program, with great fan support. And they will find great coaches again in the future, even if Miller leaves. But it shows what a difference future expectations matter to our happiness. While Dayton fans should be celebrating players like Jordan Sibert for taking the program to new levels of success, I think they will spend the next few weeks fretting about Miller's future. I know nothing about what will happen. Perhaps Marshall will take another job and Miller will stay. But the contrast in emotions between two successful fanbases is striking to me. #2 Gonzaga defeated #7 Iowa On the one hand, things have certainly broken in Gonzaga's favor. Teams that win national championships often catch a break in one of the rounds and get to face an unexpected low seed somewhere on their path. On the other hand, UCLA may be an 11 seed, but the Bruins margin-of-victory numbers suggest they are much stronger than the 44th best team in the country. This isn't the mismatch seeding would suggest. I wish I had more to say about Gonzaga, but sometimes when you win convincingly, there isn't much to say. #1 Wisconsin defeated #8 Oregon That was a shockingly sloppy game for Wisconsin. I feel like in most situations, Wisconsin isn't a team that you can rattle. Yes, if you use full-court pressure, you can create some turnovers. But more often than not, Wisconsin is going to find someone for a lay-up or wide-open three, and punish you for that strategy. But Wisconsin genuinely seemed rattled by Oregon. After Wisconsin got a double-digit lead in the first half, they played like they thought the game was over. Oregon went on a run to make the game close at half-time. And at the start of the second half, Wisconsin played some of the sloppiest basketball I've seen them play all year. They missed free throws. (Don't let their stat-line fool you, they made all the free throws at the end of the game, not in the middle.) They committed dumb fouls. And even when Wisconsin wasn't called for dumb fouls, I thought I saw plays where Wisconsin players were out of control and could have been called for more fouls. Eventually, with Oregon down just one point and driving for the lead, Frank Kaminsky stole the ball. And Oregon would never get close again. But if Oregon can do this, it at least gives some hope to North Carolina in the next round. #5 West Virginia defeated #4 Maryland Obviously, the injury to Melo Trimble was the deciding blow in this game. You aren't going to beat a pressing team when your star PG spends the end of the game on the sideline. But I actually think West Virginia won the game before that point based on one key stat. Maryland only got to the free throw line 13 times. And Melo Trimble, one of the most effective players in the nation at knocking down foul shots, only got four attempts at the charity stripe while he was in the game. West Virginia is great at forcing turnovers, but they also are the worst in the nation at opponent free throw rate. Once West Virginia showed they could force turnovers without fouling, the game was over. #4 Louisville defeated #5 Northern Iowa This is such an odd game to describe. On the one hand, Louisville was the 4-seed. They've won national titles; they play in the ACC; they have superstar players like Terry Rozier and Montrezl Harrell. And yet many of the margin-of-victory systems thought Northern Iowa was the superior team. And based on how Louisville played at the end of the season, a number of experts did too. It is probably reasonable to write a game-story about how Louisville overcame the odds and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen, about how Quentin Snider continues to improve, and about how Terry Rozier has now thrived as the team's full-time point-guard. But I've written a lot about Louisville over the last few years, and this space belongs to Northern Iowa. For Northern Iowa, a 31-4 season doesn't come around nearly often enough. When your team wins 30 games, when you crush state-rival Iowa in the non-conference schedule, when you play in the first Top 10 match-up in the MVC in a decade, when you beat the face of the league Wichita St in the regular season, and when you rally from 18 down to win the MVC conference tournament title, those seasons are special. For Northern Iowa this was about improving form 94th in margin-of-victory nationally to 13th. This was about a defense that improved from 187th to 27th. This was about super-efficient senior Seth Tuttle finally receiving national recognition for his shot-making, passing, and rebounding. For Louisville, this will just be another impressive season under head coach Rick Pitino. But for Northern Iowa, more than the sting of the loss, is the reality that an incredibly special season is coming to an end. I'm going to steal a line from Seth Davis from a few nights ago. This tournament is about crowning a national champion. But that is never the most important thing that happens in this tournament. If the image of Northern Iowa senior Seth Tuttle, with 1600 career points, roughly 900 career rebounds, and almost 300 career assists walking off the floor with tears in his eyes doesn't mean anything to you, you are watching the wrong sport.